After all, a government hasn’t lost a second reading vote since 1986.
Tuesday’s shenanigans, however, spoke to an administration that is struggling to stay afloat as various factions mercilessly continue to rock the boat.
Much like the Brexit years from 2016 to 2019, the Conservatives are once again appearing decidedly ungovernable, with the Rwanda plan fast resembling Sunak’s own Chequers deal.
From “Spartan” Mark Francois giving a last-minute press conference in central lobby to the threat of Sir Bill Cash tabling amendments, it was like 2019 all over again. Leaving the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) looks destined to become the new Brexit battleground.
Bribing with bacon rolls
The desperation with which the Prime Minister and his whips had to corral support, at one stage even resorting to bribing dissenters with bacon rolls, carried the distinct whiff of the last days of Theresa May’s premiership. Flying climate minister Graham Stuart back from Cop28, a 6,824-mile round trip, in a frantic bid to make up the numbers was a similarly bad look.
And so was the sight of Tories fighting like rats in a sack as they once again stood accused of making perfect the enemy of the good.
The sense of deja vu was palpable as the Labour leader piled into the “psychodrama” and “circus”, commenting: “These aren’t Churchill’s Tories anymore,”. Nigel Farage, fresh from the I’m A Celebrity jungle, delighted in claiming Sunak was “on course to lead the Conservative Party to their worst election result in modern times”.
Predicting that the next general election will be “utterly and completely dominated” by immigration, the former Brexit Party leader is openly flirting with the idea of taking the helm of Reform, currently polling at 10 per cent, and who can blame him?
Yet with at least five Conservative caucuses now in cahoots over how the legislation should be toughened up before its third reading, the biggest threat to Sunak is not from Farage but so-called friendly fire.
While Downing Street may have been delighted with the result, the prospect of the European Research Group (ERG), the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group, the Northern Research Group and Liz Truss’s Growth Group all forming a mega-flank on the right against the Bill as it currently stands will doubtlessly prompt intense displeasure inside Downing Street.
That places the Prime Minister between a rock and a hard place that will require the kind of political manoeuvring that has never been Sunak’s strongest suit. As No 10 found out to its peril on Tuesday,
It is one thing to coax MPs not to vote against the Government but quite another to persuade them to vote for it.
Public don’t really care
While some may justifiably liken any potential rebels to turkeys voting for Christmas, others could rightly argue that Sunak will be completely sunk if he ends up enacting a law that, as Robert Jenrick has warned, neither addresses the question of individual claims nor stops the ECHR from intervening to block flights. As the former immigration minister rightly pointed out, the public don’t really care about where or how illegal migrants are processed, they just want the Government to stop the boats.
The spectacle of so many lawyers-turned-politicians giving their own different interpretations from the green benches of whether the legislation will actually do that should surely raise alarm bells inside No 10.
For if even Tories who once practised as barristers and solicitors cannot agree on its effectiveness, the suits and silks in Strasbourg and beyond will surely have a field day.
Meanwhile, for an electorate still grappling with a cost of living crisis and the highest tax burden since the Second World War, there is the not insignificant matter of a £340 million Bill for a scheme that still seems less likely to take off than Concorde.
Traditionally Christmas is regarded as the season of goodwill. Sunak could be forgiven for feeling like a child waking up on December 25 to discover that he hasn’t got half of what he wished for.
